Persuasion Systems Entry #0257 Classified Declassified

Why scarcity works even when the item is not wanted

Announcing that something is about to become unavailable raises interest in people who had none. The loss being avoided is the option, not the object.

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Plate 134 — a discontinued line, suddenly attended.

Intuition test — answer before you read on

A discontinuation announcement draws buyers who say they do not need the item. What explains this?

A discontinued line is announced. Customers who had walked past it for two years arrive to buy it, and some of them say plainly that they do not need it. The product did not improve and the price did not fall. What changed is that not owning it stopped being reversible.

What everyone sees

Scarcity is assumed to work by revealing quality — if it is running out, others must want it. That reading explains part of the effect and cannot explain the buyers who state no interest in the item. Something is being protected other than the object.

What is actually happening

Brehm’s reactance theory holds that a threat to freedom of choice motivates restoration of that freedom, and the restoring act here is acquisition. Worchel, Lee and Adewole found that cookies were rated more desirable when supply was restricted, particularly when abundance had changed to scarcity. Loss aversion adds the second component: the closing option is coded as a loss, and losses are weighted more heavily than the equivalent gain of acquiring the same item freely.

Why it stays hidden

The mechanism hides because the purchase produces its own justification. Once bought, the item is examined for reasons, and reasons are found — a use case, a gift, a spare. The buyer does not experience having defended an option; they experience having noticed a product. The counterfactual, in which the line was never discontinued, is not available for comparison.

What is defended is the option, not the object. Removing the possibility of choosing later is what creates the choice now.

What is defended is the option, not the object. Removing the possibility of choosing later is what creates the choice now.

The hidden part — entry #0257

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What is defended is the option, not the object. Removing the possibility of choosing later is what creates the choice now.

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Sources & further reading 3
  1. Brehm, "A Theory of Psychological Reactance", 1966
  2. Worchel, Lee & Adewole, "Effects of Supply and Demand on Ratings of Object Value", Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1975
  3. Lynn, "Scarcity Effects on Value: A Quantitative Review of the Commodity Theory Literature", Psychology & Marketing, 1991

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