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belief perseverance

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    Cognitive Bias Entry #0104

    The opinion you defend hardest is the one you understood least

    The loudest defence usually protects the thinnest reasoning. Volume compensates for a foundation the speaker has never actually inspected.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0104

    Confidence is not compressed knowledge. A thin model has fewer visible gaps than a detailed one, so it is easier to defend loudly.

    Open file
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    Market Psychology Entry #0975

    Why a narrative outlives the data that first disproved it

    A story that explains a price move persists even after the evidence against it arrives, because narratives are stickier than data and harder to replace than to absorb.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0975

    A narrative survives disproof because stories are stickier than data. The holder patches the story rather than replacing it.

    Open file