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disclosed odds

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    Reward Loops Entry #0620

    The reason gacha odds are published and still mislead

    Disclosing a one-percent drop rate looks like honesty. But a small published probability, pulled at repeatedly, reads to the mind as almost certain.

    Master
    The hidden part #0620

    A published one percent is honest arithmetic and dishonest psychology. Small odds read as soon, and a run of misses reads as owed.

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    Reward Loops Entry #0602

    The reason a loot box feels fair right up until you open it

    Before opening, the box is pure possibility and every rare item is still inside it. Opening replaces the whole set of maybes with one ordinary thing.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0602

    An unopened box is priced at its best case. Opening is the moment that case collapses into the average you were always going to get.

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