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    Cognitive Bias Entry #0103

    Why experts are worse at forecasting their own field

    The deeper someone knows a subject the more certain they become, and the certainty grows faster than the accuracy that should justify it.

    Novice
    The hidden part #0103

    Depth of knowledge widens the confidence gap. The expert who knows the most reasons also has the most material from which to build the wrong story.

    Open file
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    Rhetoric & Omission Entry #0591

    The reason an argument from authority is sometimes correct

    Nobody can verify most of what they know. Deference is not a shortcut around evidence; it is how knowledge is held when the evidence cannot be checked.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0591

    The choice is rarely between evidence and authority. It is between examined deference and deference that is not admitted.

    Open file