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    Statistical Illusions Entry #0437

    The reason a study that replicates is worth two that do not

    A single study is a claim. A replication is a test of that claim. Two unreplicated studies are two untested claims, not twice the evidence.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0437

    Novelty fills journals. Replication fills knowledge. The incentive structure rewards the wrong one.

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    Statistical Illusions Entry #0428

    Why a ninety-nine per cent accurate test is usually wrong

    A test that is right ninety-nine times in a hundred can still be wrong about most of the cases it flags, and simple arithmetic shows why.

    Novice
    The hidden part #0428

    Accuracy is a property of the test. Whether an alert is right also depends on how rare the thing is.

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