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    Cognitive Bias Entry #0108

    The reason you trust a confident stranger over a hesitant expert

    Listeners weight advice by how certainly it is delivered, not by the record of the adviser. The market this creates rewards removing the caveats.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0108

    Certainty is cheap and accuracy is slow to verify. The channel rewards the signal that can be produced without the substance.

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    Cognitive Bias Entry #0103

    Why experts are worse at forecasting their own field

    The deeper someone knows a subject the more certain they become, and the certainty grows faster than the accuracy that should justify it.

    Novice
    The hidden part #0103

    Depth of knowledge widens the confidence gap. The expert who knows the most reasons also has the most material from which to build the wrong story.

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