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overconfidence

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    Paradox & Proof Entry #0158

    The reason more information can lower accuracy

    Adding weakly relevant detail to a judgement raises confidence and often leaves accuracy flat or worse. The extra material dilutes the signal it was meant to sharpen.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0158

    Non-diagnostic detail is averaged in rather than ignored. Confidence tracks volume of information; accuracy tracks its quality.

    Open file
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    Cognitive Bias Entry #0103

    Why experts are worse at forecasting their own field

    The deeper someone knows a subject the more certain they become, and the certainty grows faster than the accuracy that should justify it.

    Novice
    The hidden part #0103

    Depth of knowledge widens the confidence gap. The expert who knows the most reasons also has the most material from which to build the wrong story.

    Open file
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    Statistical Illusions Entry #0439

    The reason a forecast range matters more than its midpoint

    A single number implies a precision the forecast does not have. The width of the interval is the part that says how much the forecast actually knows.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0439

    Two forecasts with the same midpoint and different widths are different forecasts. Only one of those numbers usually survives.

    Open file