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    Statistical Illusions Entry #0437

    The reason a study that replicates is worth two that do not

    A single study is a claim. A replication is a test of that claim. Two unreplicated studies are two untested claims, not twice the evidence.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0437

    Novelty fills journals. Replication fills knowledge. The incentive structure rewards the wrong one.

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    Statistical Illusions Entry #1127

    Why the winner’s curse inflates first results

    Winner's curse makes the first significant result look stronger than it really is, because extreme estimates are the ones that win.

    Master
    The hidden part #1127

    When many noisy estimates compete, the winner is often the most exaggerated one.

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