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    Statistical Illusions Entry #0439

    The reason a forecast range matters more than its midpoint

    A single number implies a precision the forecast does not have. The width of the interval is the part that says how much the forecast actually knows.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0439

    Two forecasts with the same midpoint and different widths are different forecasts. Only one of those numbers usually survives.

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    Scarcity & Queues Entry #0475

    Why a queue that moves is tolerated longer than a shorter one that stalls

    Waiting is judged by whether anything is happening, not by minutes. A stalled four-minute wait is experienced as longer than a moving eleven.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0475

    Movement is evidence the wait is finite. Remove it and the perceived duration detaches from the clock.

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