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variance

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    Habit Loops Entry #0304

    The reason it takes different lengths of time for different habits

    The often-quoted single figure for forming a habit does not survive measurement. Observed times range from weeks to most of a year depending on the behaviour.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0304

    There is no single formation period. Complexity sets the curve, and the widely quoted figure is a median with its range removed.

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    Platform Mechanics Entry #0293

    The reason a viral post is rarely reproducible

    Most diffusion dies immediately and a few cascades run enormous. The difference is dominated by variance, not by properties of the item.

    Novice
    The hidden part #0293

    Nearly all cascades die at the origin and a handful run enormous. A formula extracted from a hit was fitted to one draw from that distribution.

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