The reason an example is not evidence but persuades as one
One case says nothing about how often. It arrives with detail, sequence and a face, and those are the properties that get treated as weight.
Filed by The Archivist 2 min read
Intuition test — answer before you read on
Why does a single vivid example outweigh aggregate data even when readers see both?
Correct answer: B
Option A is a real attitude but the effect appears in readers who accept the statistics. Option C is about layout. A single case drives generalisation about a population even when participants are told it is unrepresentative, and concrete first-hand accounts influence decisions more than statistically stronger aggregate summaries of the same material.
The report contains a table covering eleven thousand cases and one interview with a named woman in Kyiv. Six weeks later the table is gone from memory and she is what the report said. She was chosen as an illustration of the table.
What everyone sees
An example is understood as a way of making data accessible, subordinate to the aggregate it illustrates. In practice the ranking inverts. The concrete case is encoded with imagery and causal structure and the aggregate is a number, and when they are recalled together the case supplies the interpretation.
What is actually happening
Hamill, Wilson and Nisbett gave participants a single vivid case together with explicit information that it was unrepresentative, and found generalisation to the wider population barely reduced by the warning — the sample-bias information failing to blunt the inference drawn from the case. Borgida and Nisbett found the complementary asymmetry in decision-making, where concrete first-hand accounts influenced choices more than statistically superior aggregate summaries covering the same ground. Neither result says examples should be avoided. It says the example is doing the persuading, so the honest use is to select it at random from the distribution rather than for how well it illustrates the point.
Why it stays hidden
The substitution hides because the aggregate is present. The table is in the document, the methodology is described, and anyone can check that the claim is supported. What cannot be checked from the page is which element the reader retained, and the retained element was chosen for vividness by whoever wrote it.
A case carries no frequency information and all the memorability. Choosing the example for how well it illustrates the point is where the argument moves.
A case carries no frequency information and all the memorability. Choosing the example for how well it illustrates the point is where the argument moves.
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A case carries no frequency information and all the memorability. Choosing the example for how well it illustrates the point is where the argument moves.
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Sources & further reading 2
- Hamill, Wilson & Nisbett — insensitivity to sample bias: generalizing from atypical cases
- Borgida & Nisbett — the differential impact of abstract vs concrete information on decisions
Cross-references
Related files
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