The reason gains are split and losses combined
Two pieces of good news arrive on separate days. One piece of bad news arrives all at once. The pattern is not random and not accidental.
Filed by The Archivist 2 min read
Intuition test — answer before you read on
A firm delivers good news in two announcements and bad news in one. Why?
Correct answer: B
Thaler’s hedonic framing rules predict exactly this pattern: the concavity of the gain curve means two separate gains feel better than one combined gain of the same total, and the convexity of the loss curve means one combined loss feels less bad than two separate ones.
A company announces a bonus in January and a dividend increase in March. A restructuring charge and a write-down appear in a single quarterly report. The good news came in two portions and the bad news came in one, and neither arrangement was forced by the calendar.
What everyone sees
The timing looks like coincidence or operational convenience. Two announcements were ready at different times; the charges happened to fall in the same quarter. The idea that the timing is chosen to manage how the numbers feel is not the explanation shareholders reach for.
What is actually happening
Thaler described the hedonic framing principle, derived from Kahneman and Tversky’s prospect theory: because the value function is concave for gains and convex for losses, segregating gains (presenting them separately) increases total felt value, while integrating losses (combining them) reduces total felt pain. Thaler called the rules mental accounting. Empirically, the pattern has been documented in corporate earnings management, where firms time discretionary disclosures to align with these hedonic rules.
Why it stays hidden
The strategy hides because it operates on the calendar rather than on the numbers. The amounts are accurate in every case; what is managed is when and how they are grouped. A shareholder who sees each announcement individually has no reason to suspect that the grouping was chosen, because each announcement is true on its own and arrives with a plausible operational explanation.
Good news is separated so it is felt twice. Bad news is combined so it is felt once. The arithmetic is the same; the experience is not.
Good news is separated so it is felt twice. Bad news is combined so it is felt once. The arithmetic is the same; the experience is not.
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Good news is separated so it is felt twice. Bad news is combined so it is felt once. The arithmetic is the same; the experience is not.
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Sources & further reading 3
- Thaler, "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice", Marketing Science, 1985
- Kahneman & Tversky, "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk", Econometrica, 1979
- Thaler, "Mental Accounting Matters", Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1999
Cross-references
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