Filtered dossier

Statistical Illusions

Entirely true figures pointing at an entirely false conclusion.

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    Statistical Illusions Entry #0442

    Why a cluster is expected in random data

    Randomness produces clumps. A pattern spread out evenly is the unlikely arrangement, so finding a cluster is not yet finding a cause.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0442

    Independent events arrive in bursts, so a cluster is the expected texture rather than a signal. Evenness is what would need explaining.

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    Statistical Illusions Entry #1127

    Why the winner’s curse inflates first results

    Winner's curse makes the first significant result look stronger than it really is, because extreme estimates are the ones that win.

    Master
    The hidden part #1127

    When many noisy estimates compete, the winner is often the most exaggerated one.

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    Statistical Illusions Entry #1126

    Why Berkson bias bends the sample

    Berkson bias makes two independent traits look related because the sample was filtered by a shared gate, not by reality.

    Adept
    The hidden part #1126

    A filter can create a relationship that the population never had.

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