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1,042 entries declassified
All 12
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Statistics 12
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Brand 0
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12 / 12
No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0441
Dividing by population removes size from a comparison. Since size drives most totals, the ranking that survives is often the opposite of the original.
The hidden part
#0441
A total measures magnitude and a rate measures intensity. Which one is published decides most of the ranking.
Reveal the hidden insight of The reason per capita reverses many rankings
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No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0440
A measure requires a definition, and once the measure is consequential the definition becomes something to be managed rather than merely applied.
The hidden part
#0440
A number is a definition applied to the world. Make the number consequential and the definition becomes the thing under negotiation.
Reveal the hidden insight of Why counting something changes what gets counted
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No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0439
A single number implies a precision the forecast does not have. The width of the interval is the part that says how much the forecast actually knows.
The hidden part
#0439
Two forecasts with the same midpoint and different widths are different forecasts. Only one of those numbers usually survives.
Reveal the hidden insight of The reason a forecast range matters more than its midpoint
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No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0438
A mean is pulled by every extreme value in the set. A median is not, so for skewed quantities it describes the ordinary case far more closely.
The hidden part
#0438
A mean answers a question about the total. For a skewed quantity, only the median approximates the ordinary case.
Reveal the hidden insight of Why the median rent tells you more than the average
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No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0450
Absence has a shape. Which records lack a value is usually related to what the value would have been, so dropping them changes the population.
The hidden part
#0450
If presence depends on the value, dropping incomplete rows selects on the variable of interest. Model the missingness — it is often the better predictor.
Reveal the hidden insight of Why the missing data is the most informative column
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No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0449
A published comparison reorganises the thing it measures. Effort moves to the scored dimensions, and the unscored ones become where the cost is paid.
The hidden part
#0449
Publishing a comparison makes it an intervention. Effort migrates to the scored dimensions, and the unscored ones have no series to show the loss.
Reveal the hidden insight of The reason a benchmark becomes a distortion
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No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0448
Transmission selects for what can be repeated without effort. A round number survives the retelling; the decimal is dropped at the first hop.
The hidden part
#0448
Retelling is a memory task, and round numbers are cheaper to store and produce. Precision is lost by selection, not by dishonesty.
Reveal the hidden insight of Why a rounded figure travels further than a precise one
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No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0447
People extend growth in straight lines because that is what intuition supplies. The gap between the line and the curve is where the surprise lives.
The hidden part
#0447
Intuition extrapolates by addition and the process multiplies. Short horizons reward the habit, and long ones are where it fails.
Reveal the hidden insight of The reason a compound rate deceives over long periods
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No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0446
The number describes a situation that has already moved. Acting hard on it applies force in the direction the system has just finished going.
The hidden part
#0446
When the measurement lag matches the system’s response time, a proportional correction becomes an oscillation. Each step is defensible; the sequence is not.
Reveal the hidden insight of Why a lagging statistic invites the wrong correction
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No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0445
Answering costs time, and the people who pay it are those with something to say. Indifference is the hardest state to get into a dataset.
The hidden part
#0445
Willingness to answer is itself an attitude, and weighting cannot repair it. Indifference is the state a voluntary survey cannot record.
Reveal the hidden insight of The reason a self-selected panel overstates strong opinions
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No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0444
Sampling errors shrink with size; frame errors do not. If the list you draw from excludes a group, no amount of sampling from it will find them.
The hidden part
#0444
Size shrinks sampling error and leaves coverage error untouched. A precise estimate of a frame is not an estimate of a population.
Reveal the hidden insight of Why the sample frame decides the result
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No visual on file
Statistical Illusions
Entry #0443
It led because of a structure that produced the delay. When the structure changes, the correlation stays in the historical data and leaves the future.
The hidden part
#0443
An indicator leads because of a structure, not because of its history. Fit is measured with data nobody had at the time.
Reveal the hidden insight of The reason a leading indicator stops leading
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