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    Statistical Illusions Entry #0434

    Why a percentage change needs its starting point

    A fifty per cent increase from two is one. A fifty per cent increase from two million is one million. The percentage is identical; the meaning is not.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0434

    A percentage without a base is not a statistic. It is a frame looking for a denominator the reader will supply.

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    Statistical Illusions Entry #0427

    The reason a rising rate can mean a shrinking problem

    The rate went up and the headline called it a crisis. The count went down and nobody mentioned it. Both statements described the same data.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0427

    Denominators move independently. A rising rate can coexist with a falling count whenever the base grows faster than the outcome.

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