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costly signal

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    Market Signals Entry #0420

    The reason a founder’s departure is read before it is explained

    The statement arrives with the news, and the market ignores it. What an informed party does is treated as evidence; what they say is not.

    Master
    The hidden part #0420

    A departure is a costly action by the best-informed party. The statement attached to it is free, and free statements are filtered out on arrival.

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    Market Signals Entry #0418

    The reason hiring speed reveals more than headcount

    A headcount reports a decision already taken and possibly regretted. The rate of change reports what the firm believes about the next few quarters.

    Novice
    The hidden part #0418

    Headcount records what a firm already decided. Hiring rate records what it currently believes, and only one of the two is published.

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