Filtered dossier

planning fallacy

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    Cognitive Bias Entry #0112

    The reason you underestimate how long everything takes

    Every project plan starts from the version where nothing goes wrong. The estimate is the best case labelled as the expected case.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0112

    The plan is the best case given a name. Every project is estimated from its interior, where nothing has gone wrong yet.

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    Paradox & Proof Entry #0170

    The reason a shorter deadline can improve the work

    Available time is absorbed rather than used. Most of what fills a long schedule is elaboration that adds cost without adding value.

    Master
    The hidden part #0170

    Long schedules are filled by elaboration nobody had to justify. A shorter one forces the prioritisation that would otherwise never happen.

    Open file
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    Decision Architecture Entry #0149

    The reason a plan survives contact with nobody

    A plan announced publicly acquires a defender before it acquires evidence. Announcing it also delivers part of the satisfaction that completing it was meant to supply.

    Master
    The hidden part #0149

    A published plan gains a defender before it gains evidence, and the announcement already paid out part of the reward.

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    Emotional Triggers Entry #0764

    The reason hope is the feeling behind every subscription

    Every subscription sells hope rather than a product, because hope frames each renewal as an investment in a better future self, not a recurring cost.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0764

    Subscriptions sell a future self, not a present service. Hope makes the gap between paying and using feel temporary rather than wasteful.

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