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reflexivity

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    Paradox & Proof Entry #0160

    The reason a prediction can cause its own failure

    The forecast changed the system it was forecasting. The prediction was accurate about the world before it was announced, and inaccurate about the world after.

    Master
    The hidden part #0160

    A prediction that enters the system it describes is no longer a prediction. It is a participant, and participants change outcomes.

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    Yield Illusions Entry #0915

    Why the reward token drops as fast as the rewards arrive

    When a reward is paid in a token that recipients immediately sell, the selling pushes its price down, so the yield erodes the value it is paid in.

    Master
    The hidden part #0915

    A reward paid in a token everyone sells falls as it is paid. The higher the rate, the faster it dumps itself.

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    Market Psychology Entry #0954

    The reason a rising price is read as proof it will rise more

    A price that has been going up is taken as evidence it will continue, so the trend becomes its own justification and past performance is mistaken for a forecast.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0954

    A rising price is read as a forecast of itself. The trend becomes the thesis until it breaks, and the thesis has no floor.

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