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    Statistical Illusions Entry #0430

    Why the best performers regress next season

    Extreme results are part skill and part luck. The luck does not repeat, so the best performers drift back without anything having gone wrong.

    Master
    The hidden part #0430

    When a measurement is partly noise, the top of the table is where the noise was largest.

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    Market Signals Entry #0414

    The reason a refund rate is published only when low

    Voluntary disclosure is not a sample of the facts. Where hiding a number is allowed, every published number is one that its owner preferred to publish.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0414

    Where silence is permitted, published figures are a sample of preferences, not a sample of the market.

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    Statistical Illusions Entry #0450

    Why the missing data is the most informative column

    Absence has a shape. Which records lack a value is usually related to what the value would have been, so dropping them changes the population.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0450

    If presence depends on the value, dropping incomplete rows selects on the variable of interest. Model the missingness — it is often the better predictor.

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