Cognitive Bias Entry #0115 Classified Declassified

Why one person’s story beats a million-person statistic

A statistic asks for arithmetic. A face asks for nothing, and the response arrives before any arithmetic could have been performed.

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Plate 245 — The feeling the number cooled

Intuition test — answer before you read on

Adding famine statistics to an identified child’s story reduces donations below the story alone. Why?

A charity tests two appeals. One reports that two million people face famine. The other names a single child and shows her photograph. The single-child appeal raises more, and adding the statistic to the child’s story lowers donations below the story alone. More information produced less giving.

What everyone sees

The gap is usually explained as a failure of imagination: two million is too large to picture. That is accurate but incomplete, because it does not explain why adding the number to the story actively suppresses the response the story produced. Merely being unimaginable would make the number inert, not corrosive.

What is actually happening

Small, Loewenstein and Slovic showed that donations to an identified child fell when statistical information about the wider crisis was added, and argued that the statistic shifts the responder into a deliberative mode that dampens affect. Slovic described psychic numbing: emotional response does not scale with the number of lives at stake and can flatten as the number grows. The single identified victim engages the affect system directly; the aggregate engages a calculating system, and the calculating system is both weaker at motivating action and capable of suppressing the affective response already underway.

Why it stays hidden

The mechanism hides because the donor believes they are responding to need, and need is obviously greater in the aggregate case. There is no felt moment of switching from feeling to calculating. The switch registers only as a slight cooling, which the donor may interpret as prudence or scepticism rather than as the arrival of a mode that cannot generate the motivation the first mode supplied.

The number does not fail to move us. It arrives with a mode of thinking that cannot be moved.

The number does not fail to move us. It arrives with a mode of thinking that cannot be moved.

The hidden part — entry #0115

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The number does not fail to move us. It arrives with a mode of thinking that cannot be moved.

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Sources & further reading 2
  1. Small, Loewenstein & Slovic — sympathy and callousness
  2. Slovic — psychic numbing and genocide

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