Filtered dossier

Cognitive Bias

Errors of judgement that arrive feeling exactly like judgement.

  • 12 / 12
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0108

    The reason you trust a confident stranger over a hesitant expert

    Listeners weight advice by how certainly it is delivered, not by the record of the adviser. The market this creates rewards removing the caveats.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0108

    Certainty is cheap and accuracy is slow to verify. The channel rewards the signal that can be produced without the substance.

    Open file
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    Cognitive Bias Entry #0114

    The reason your past self always looks more foolish

    You know how the decision turned out, and the knowledge cannot be set aside. Your earlier uncertainty is rewritten as naïveté.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0114

    You are not smarter than your past self. You have information your past self lacked, and you cannot put it down.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0113

    Why a fact sounds truer the second time you hear it

    A statement heard before is rated as more likely to be true than an identical statement heard for the first time, even when the source is unreliable.

    Novice
    The hidden part #0113

    Repetition does not add evidence. It adds ease, and ease is read as truth.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0112

    The reason you underestimate how long everything takes

    Every project plan starts from the version where nothing goes wrong. The estimate is the best case labelled as the expected case.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0112

    The plan is the best case given a name. Every project is estimated from its interior, where nothing has gone wrong yet.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0109

    Why bad weather darkens a market forecast

    Sunshine and overcast skies have no informational content about equities, and yet market returns correlate weakly with local weather.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0109

    Mood enters the forecast as though it were data. The sky has no opinion about equities, but the forecaster does not separate the two.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0104

    The opinion you defend hardest is the one you understood least

    The loudest defence usually protects the thinnest reasoning. Volume compensates for a foundation the speaker has never actually inspected.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0104

    Confidence is not compressed knowledge. A thin model has fewer visible gaps than a detailed one, so it is easier to defend loudly.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0101

    Why you remember the one bad review out of forty

    Thirty-nine people were satisfied. You are thinking about the fortieth. That is not a flaw in your attention; it is the oldest filing rule the mind has.

    Novice
    The hidden part #0101

    The complaint is not more truthful than the praise. It is only cheaper to remember, and the mind mistakes ease of recall for weight of evidence.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0103

    Why experts are worse at forecasting their own field

    The deeper someone knows a subject the more certain they become, and the certainty grows faster than the accuracy that should justify it.

    Novice
    The hidden part #0103

    Depth of knowledge widens the confidence gap. The expert who knows the most reasons also has the most material from which to build the wrong story.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0102

    The reason yesterday’s price feels like the right price

    A number you saw once becomes the standard against which every later number is judged, even when you cannot remember where the first one came from.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0102

    The last price paid is not evidence of the right price. It is the starting point of a comparison that was never asked for.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0106

    The reason near-misses feel like progress

    An outcome that almost succeeded is registered as skill developing rather than as a loss. In a chance process there is no such thing as almost.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0106

    Proximity is only informative where skill operates. In a chance process a near-miss is a loss wearing the costume of progress.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0105

    Why a free trial changes what you think a product is worth

    A trial does not demonstrate value so much as transfer ownership. Cancelling afterwards is experienced as giving something up, not as declining to buy.

    Master
    The hidden part #0105

    A trial moves the decision from acquiring to relinquishing. The price stays the same while the question quietly changes.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0107

    Why the first number in a negotiation outlives the argument

    Both sides argue for an hour and land near the figure one of them said in the first minute. The argument was real. It was also decorative.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0107

    Anchoring is not the failure to move. It is that the whole conversation happened inside a region somebody else chose before it began.

    Open file