Filtered dossier

Hidden Logic

Ideas that behave differently than they look.

  • 12 / 12
  • No visual on file
    Decision Architecture Entry #0135

    The reason irreversible choices feel better afterwards

    An option that cannot be returned is rated higher than the same option with a return window. The closed door is doing the work.

    Master
    The hidden part #0135

    A closed door stops the comparison loop. The mind then makes the best of what it has, and it is good at this.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Decision Architecture Entry #0134

    Why the second question on a survey is the real one

    The opening question sets a frame. Every answer that follows is given inside it, and the respondent cannot see the frame because they are standing in it.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0134

    The first question is not a question. It is the frame in which the second question will be understood.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0114

    The reason your past self always looks more foolish

    You know how the decision turned out, and the knowledge cannot be set aside. Your earlier uncertainty is rewritten as naïveté.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0114

    You are not smarter than your past self. You have information your past self lacked, and you cannot put it down.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Paradox & Proof Entry #0155

    Why the average person has fewer friends than their friends

    In almost every network, most members are less connected than their own contacts are on average. The comparison is rigged by how contacts get sampled.

    Master
    The hidden part #0155

    Your contacts are a sample weighted by connection count. The comparison is against the well-connected by construction.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0113

    Why a fact sounds truer the second time you hear it

    A statement heard before is rated as more likely to be true than an identical statement heard for the first time, even when the source is unreliable.

    Novice
    The hidden part #0113

    Repetition does not add evidence. It adds ease, and ease is read as truth.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Attention & Memory Entry #0196

    Why testing yourself beats rereading

    Rereading feels like learning and mostly is not. The method that feels least productive is the one that leaves the most behind.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0196

    Fluency is a sensation, not a measurement. The method that feels like it is failing is frequently the one doing the work.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Paradox & Proof Entry #0154

    The reason a fair coin produces unfair-looking runs

    In two hundred fair tosses a run of seven identical results is likely. People asked to fake the sequence almost never allow one, which is how fakes are detected.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0154

    Randomness clusters. The expected longest run in a fair sequence is far longer than intuition permits, so real data looks rigged.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0112

    The reason you underestimate how long everything takes

    Every project plan starts from the version where nothing goes wrong. The estimate is the best case labelled as the expected case.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0112

    The plan is the best case given a name. Every project is estimated from its interior, where nothing has gone wrong yet.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Cognitive Bias Entry #0109

    Why bad weather darkens a market forecast

    Sunshine and overcast skies have no informational content about equities, and yet market returns correlate weakly with local weather.

    Adept
    The hidden part #0109

    Mood enters the forecast as though it were data. The sky has no opinion about equities, but the forecaster does not separate the two.

    Open file
  • No visual on file
    Paradox & Proof Entry #0156

    The reason improving every hospital can worsen the statistics

    Every department improved. The overall figure got worse. Both statements are true at once, and the reason is one of the most useful traps in data.

    Master
    The hidden part #0156

    A total is not a neutral summary of its parts. It is the result of a grouping decision, and that decision can point the conclusion in either direction.

    Open file